MI6 | Digital Exponential Technological Growth | SIS

Credit Default Swaps killed the Moody 10 years ago…how will the FSB and CIA fare in Round II?

The names of the instruments might change, and the names of the participants might change, but history shows us, the outcome is normally the same.  The outcome for the many is nearly always eventually determined by the will of the few.  The question is.  Who are the few?

Now what new instrument do we know of that is not on a regulated exchange and has no reporting requirements just like CDS's in 2008.  Hmm...let's think for a Bit.  Here are some of our predictions.

Thought recoginition and mapping research began a long time ago. However, recent developments connecting Neuroscience with technology, will literally change how we think in the not too distant future.

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Exponential Technology

 

There is little doubt that changes in technology have occurred in some profound ways over the last fifty years.  What has also changed however, and undoubtedly of more significance, is the rate of that change which has increased significantly even over the last five to ten years.  In our view, the single most important factor in the intelligence agencies armoury and their successful prediction of exponential technological change, is measurementClick here to read more about measurement and its impact on the future of intelligence.

 

The sheer computational power available to us now is vast and the implications of a change of speed in this power will be influential on the intelligence gathering community, not in five years, but within the next two.  A child in Mumbai, for example, now has greater access to data and cross-referencing power than even President Clinton had at his disposal.  In effect the result is a democratisation or a means of levelling the playing field like nothing we have experienced before.  With this in mind, as the Chief of MI6 has said, there will be two types of intelligence agencies in the near future. Those that understand and prepare for the exponential growth in certain technologies (such as AI, automated cars, 3D printing and robotics), and those who do not.  If SIS and other allied agencies are going to be successful in combatting any form of terrorism or threat against our nation, it needs to stay ahead of the exponential curve. Read More.

Exponential Technological Growth -  From Theory to Application in Social Service

Let us grasp the 'nuts and bolts' so to speak, because at the crux of this subject is the efficient and meaningful application of what has so far been a predominantly theoretical offering.  An offering put forward by modern day marketeers, said to talk on behalf of those representing the top echelons of the social, academic and corporate elite.  Whilst Mr Diamandis et al have no doubt had a significant effect on making sense of a non-linear concept explained in a linear way using very linear examples such as history and fact, the targets have tended to be corporate beneficiaries where the currency of success is measured by just that, currency.  How does this model translate when applied to an agency such as the Secret Intelligence Service (SIS) or the CIA?  This section builds on topics already discussed, namely the development of Exponential Organisations over the last fifty years and the digitized growth over the last ten.  These are accepted and do not warrant further coverage here.  The objective of this article is to explore 'real life', practical implementation of exponential technological growth, and critically, its measurement thereof, for UK and allied Intelligence Agencies.

Politically Exposed Persons -  Automated Data models and Exponential Technology

In the section describing Politically Exposed Persons (PEPs), we outline who in theory these individuals (or relatives and colleagues of the individual might be), but stumble somewhat on the precise definition of a PEP.  There is still an important gulf between the concept and the detail, and this is where institutions such as MI6 have to apply their own systems to apply their own definitions.  Of growing importance in this specific area is the use of computer modelling using various complex algorithms and variable to identify, assess and alert organisations to potentially PEP's and patterns of behaviour that might present a risk.

The Future of Intelligence

Possibly at nearly every point in human history one will have heard someone saying in some form or another that we are going through difficult times and that the decisions we make now will have a fundamental impact on future generations.  The tudors, the victorians, the Chinese dynasties, mans' evolution, the Nazi's, Vietnam and the cold war, were all difficult times and frankly, what we face now is no different.  Since the beginning, man has always been a species with a terrifying taste and predilection towards conflict and war.  This is of course well known.  What is less well known now however, is who our enemy actually is.  For almost the first time in history, we cannot sit behind the front line and spy on our foe behind a well armoured infantry, or send a drone to 'take out' precise enemies with precise coordinates.  Historically, wars are politically hugely important and make even the great political fund raisers pale into insignificance with the impact they can have on the popularity of the leadership at that moment in time.  Patriotism sets aside political differences in favour of a national pride and feeds our inevitable desire to be part of the pack, and team up to fight our common enemy.  These are of course all well known, tried and tested human attributes.  War is a time of joining together, picking up the slack, backbone, defiance, justice and immense courage and a time where we tend to see the very best as well as the very worst of humanity.  The effect can be significant and is instrumental in providing society, during post war recovery, with an identity and commonality we all desire.  
But what if we fight a war where we do not see, or do not know who our enemy is?  What happens to that human desire?  Moreover, what happens to our identity?  These are weighty topics indeed and somewhat outside of the scope of this analysis, however as we see the information rollercoaster flatten out borders and boundaries across the globe, are we also seeing a dilution in the national spirit and national identity which provides the very infrastructure of a well rounded, democratic and civilised world?  In essence, without an actual enemy to fight, and without the benefits derived from that unity, are we being left feeling impotent?  The absence of the enemy, it could be argued, therefore goes beyond just making the fight more difficult, it actually wears away the fabric of national consciousness and pride.  So, for the first time in history, this is now happening and we are in somewhat unchartered waters looking for an enemy in a chaotic, 'pacman-esque' fashion which serves little to no purpose. 
What we are left with now is a society disjointed and feeling left out, impotent and unable stand behind the aforementioned front line of 'infantry'.  To put it plainly, the spies are by definition unseen and their work is unacknowledged and fighting an enemy who is on their doorstep for a second, but far away the next.  There has always been an understandable buffer between the intelligence services and the general public i.e. the people it serves to protect.  Of course that is understandable.  This has always been the case.  The difference in times gone by however, is that operating alongside secret intelligence was the traditional, visible, military machine of our armed forces or the political power of our leaders.  That was enough to keep the 'average joe' happy and to make him or her feel they were 'doing their bit' for Queen and country.  Not so now.  What should actually happen now, if our experiences in the past are anything to go by, is to include the public in the fight as much as possible.  Think about it.  When there has been a war, what did the men do?  They 'joined up' or joined the reserves.  The women picked up the slack and made the bullets or built the ships.  It was always the case, whether fifty years ago or five hundred years ago.  So what happens now? We can hardy expect Jim the builder to down tools and head off to Vauxhall to join Section 6, or send our farmers to Langley to learn the CIA ropes.  They are redundant, impotent and therefore we are being hit from TWO angles now.   The fear and uncertainty of a new warrior, as well as the effects of a serious negative impact on morale. 
 
Speaking as a UK citizen, not a member of the military or a member of an intelligence service, I can only take the repetitive advice from National Rail to remember the 'three S's' so far.  Sure I can SEE it, sure I can SAY it, and yes I can SORT it, but where do I join the queue to fight Al and his friend Qaeda?  It is that feeling of ineptitude and disillusionment that has to be managed in todays modern war if we are to keep the 'hearts and minds' ticking over.  If we are to learn anything from history then there will be another catastrophic event on a much larger scale than witnessed before, which will act as a watershed and necessitate a different course of action for our intelligence services to take.  In conjunction with our politicians or course.  The checks and balances, whilst sometimes understandably criticised for their lack of checks and distinct lack of balance, are nonetheless there for a reason.  In such a 'post watershed' world, should it happen, there will have to be an increased unity between Government and the Intelligence communities and the Military, but there will also have to be a method of including the people in the fight.  Yes, of course, a battle can now be carried out by a teenager with a decent processor and internet speed, a couple of terra-bytes and a reasonable grasp of social media to effectively make any notion of using troops or physical assaults absolute nonsense.  You only have to read the transcript of Alex Youngers' speech at the University of St Andrews in December 2018 to know that.  The mind boggles at what the likes of Kim Philby et al would have made of a tweet or a poke, but it is safe to say both Facebook and Twitter are probably equally as reliable and trustworthy.  I digress however.
 
If the Intelligence Services are to bend the exponential curve in their favour, these thoughts are critical in shaping how the future battles are likely to be fought.  There is of course a familiar parallel with the use of propaganda and media utilisation to boost allied morale and dent enemy will, and in some ways the above arguments could well be simply a modern day manifestation.  To a certain extent that is true.  That doesn't mean it is now wrong to consider a hybrid version of that time tested weapon which has been used in wars through the centuries.  Al Qaeda and IS and their various off-spring are doing the same thing as we speak, and one only need ask the Russians about their experiences in Afghanistan or US Army in Vietnam, to know how important winning the local hearts and minds through a well oiled propaganda machine can be.  The point however is that whilst we acknowledge the importance of such methods, we are now in a different environment and cannot employ those same methods to utilise our population to assist us in defeating the enemy. That is something that together the intelligence services and governments will have to work on to find a modern day equivalent. 
At the moment, thankfully, the 'virus' is contained, but if we have learnt anything we have to acknowledge that at some point it will not be.  Maybe that is why Mr Younger and his teams are changing tact and becoming more vocal publicly and more inclusive in their use of the general public.  If that is the case and this is simply the start of a well thought out campaign with a clear objective then it has to be the correct course of action.  It is the way to go.  If, however, there is a seismic event which creates that watershed moment, then the general public will have to be used in force and the governments' and intelligence agencies will come under extreme pressure.  As we often hear people say, we do not hear about the successes of our secret intelligence services, whereas the failures become all too public and well known.  It is an unfortunate but inevitable consequence.  As time goes by and the threat of an event which sadly may well make 9-11 pale into insignificance becomes increasingly likely, in such a scenario, the pressure on SIS and allied intelligence agencies will become immense and public pressure will demand inclusion in some form or another.  This is one likely consequence of the current trajectory of terrorism and although there are many more, it is something we need to plan for now. 
 
At the very least, prepare a contingency so that the public, or selected sections of the public (call them 'representatives' of a Union of sorts), are given roles and appointed to feel as though they are contributing in some way. This is only a patch and will not work longer term, but it would be enough to buy time.  Of course, anyone reading this, may be justified for asking if this is really important at all?  The public have their place after all and we have a highly experienced intelligence machine, a splendid military and a well organised political structure.  Surely Sir Humphrey and his civil servant friends would sneer at the very thought.  The simple answer is that, in this writers view, history can often be used as an accurate indicator of future events.  And if history has taught us anything, it is that a unified, well motivated army, is more often than not a highly successful one, even when faced with a new and uncertain enemy.  To reiterate, it might be a coincidence that recent events have seen MI6 and MI5 align themselves more closely with the public.  I suspect it is more than simply a marketing ploy designed to win some sort of political favour.  Rather, it is more likely part of a move to include the public as mentioned above.  The recent campaign to focus on the recruitment of ethnic minorities and women, the strategic advertising on Mumsnet for example, or the targeting of teen creative social media types, is probably an indication that this is more than just political.  The fact that Mr Younger chose to deliver this speech at St Andrews is perhaps a slightly ironic nod to the old school to let them know all is well and the proverbial 'tap on the shoulder' method of recruitment is still alive and well.  Baby steps yes, but steps nonetheless.
Q: Can we induce an event which leads to a material and significant change in a person’s ability or behaviour which would be useful to an organisation such as MI6?

Straps yourselves in for a little bit of a wild ride, so if extreme sports of the academic or indeed philosophical kind are not your thing, then please unbuckle now and leave the park. The four terms used in the title would appear at first glance to be connected, but for the purposes of this article, are not.  There is a distinct, and key difference in that they refer to a journey of sorts.  The journey of the mind and neural functionality that eventually leads to a change which has been caused by an ‘event’. Each term describes a condition.  A condition of the brain at a point in the journey. 

Where did my Taxi Driver and my money go?”

 

Whenever there is a radical and rapid development in Technology, the voices of those who fear the human effects of such developments sing loud.  Of course, debate is ultimately a healthy proposition when conducted in the correct manner i.e a respectful exchange of ideas, evidence and facts to determine the truth or at least the likelihood of why ‘something’ happens.  The problem is that as we venture further up the emotional curve and hit the raw nerve of public consciousness, a healthy debate, absent of extreme views, is less and less likely.   This is quite possibly the stage we are at now when it comes to the vast changes of technological development at exponential rates of growth.  If one then throws into the mix a subject such as Artificial Intelligence, which has been the subject of many a doomsday prophecy, especially in the fictional world, then the prediction of likely effects  becomes distorted.  There are a vast number of capillaceous issues branching out from each topic within AI and on a scale which precludes us from analysis in this article due to time.  However, there are rarely more topics as emotive as a person's job and their ability to generate income in order to survive...so will driverless cars render the taxi driver extinct and will money even be necessary in any form? Read More. 13.08.19

Dark Web

An Opportunity or Threat?

Perceived wisdom suggests the Dark Web is synonymous with illegal activities involving weapons, drugs and pedophiia.  The assumption has been that if you use it, then you have something sinister to hide.  To be fair, closure of drug giants like "Silk Road" did nothing to change those perceptions.  However, in the big brother world of surveillance, the search for privacy is demanded by the majority and will be found in some way or another.  Furthermore, in a society where people are being increasingly attracted to the fringes of life,  the shift to increasing usage of the Dark Web is a given.  That does not mean it is wrong however, and as we often witness, it is people from the 'fringes' who sometimes operate outside of social norms, who provide the greatest sources of innovation.  We firmly believe the dark web will undergo an upgrade of sorts and although usual, non-secured browser based sites will attract some attention, their days are numbered.  The really exciting proposition is to predict Dark Web 2.0, 3.0 and so on. Rather ironically, but understandably, it is the law enforcement and intelligence agencies who are spending more and more resources on hiding within the shadows of the Dark Web.  It has been the most effective way so far.  However, as it grows, it will it continue to be the safe haven of the criminal or will some form of regulation (such as was with the legalisation of drugs etc), prevent the extreme offenders?  Take the example of Silk Road. It is not only possible, it is probable.  Whether you are in favour of legalisation generally or not,  in many cases it is a safer option.  Many of the sites that offered Marijuana were ran as slick commercial organisations where consumer satisfaction was paramount.  The product was therefore of superior quality (apparently) and it was offered within the relative safety of the internet and not some dark street corner.  Maybe that one is for the liberals out there.  For our purposes however, it shows that the deep dark web does actually have a USP which can be monetized, namely privacy.  Looking further head therefore, the real drug that will sell well in our 'Orwellian' future, is anonymity.  That will undoubtedly be the most precious of commodities.

 

As it stands now however, people and the societies they live in tend to display tendencies to self-regulate and yes, whilst there is always potential for abuse, the masses will (or should) drive the market to some degree of parity.  There are certainly huge opportunities around the corner.  A secured 'blockchain'esque' physical depository for parcel delivery is bound to happen on a large scale and accompany the growth of the Dark Web.  That is because the only chink in its armour at the moment is complete anonymity with delivery of items. Imagine a secure facility where parcels (aka Data) entering from one side, is subjected to 'scrambling' (aka 'Encryption') and leave the other side to be collected by a seemingly unconnected party (aka 'You').  Now multiply that across every City in the UK.  You then have what one can REALLY call an encrypted, secure, supply chain that would be undetectable to all agencies and, most importantly, legal  Read More.

There are many ways to recruit a spy.  Certainly too many to cover in an article such as this. It really depends on who the particular intelligence agency is looking for, which organization, and what its objective is.  It will come as no surprise that some methods are more or less well publicized than others.  For SIS in particular, given that the organization did not officially exist until 1994, many of the methods used for recruitment are, for obvious reasons, still closely guarded secrets.  Graduate recruitment is one thing, but developing a potential (currently operational) agent is another, especially if they are already in full time professional employment or indeed, working for another intelligence agency. 

 

The PR stance at the moment may well be to promote a progressive, modern image, and in many ways it most definitely is.  However, the traditional ‘tap on the shoulder’ approach was really symptomatic of a desire to retain control of the recruitment process.  To that end, things have not really changed.  SIS has, and always will be, more cautious about the ‘walk in’ candidate and will have entirely different, and more complex, processes in place to evaluate such a person.  Furthermore, the complex recruitment cycle is now refined to the point where SIS can recruit individuals without them even knowing.  Now that’s surely the recruiters’ holy grail.  As with all things ‘intelligence’ orientated, there is a constant focus on resources and purchasing power.  SIS needs to maximise the value of each pound spent and therefore, long and complex targeting of individuals used to gain information, has to be considered against the costs of recruiting those intelligence officers charged with interpreting that information.  So, in essence, a balancing act in the same way as any other modern-day commercial organisation.  Let’s not forget however, that despite the budget allocated by the Intelligence Committee and oversight of section 5, 6 and GCHQ, there are still relatively few intelligence officers out there. Especially in the ever-changing competitive world of private intelligence agencies and their corporate counterparts which compounds the problems caused by the brain drain and external temptations.

 

SIS Chief Alex Younger said in his speech at St Andrews that “If you think you can spot an MI6 officer, you are mistaken. It doesn’t matter where you are from. If you want to make a difference and you think you might have what it takes, then the chances are that you do have what it takes, and we hope you will step forward.”  Clearly this is a nod to the future and the recognition that with Espionage 4.0 around the corner, intelligence agencies need to invest now and allow time for the training and development of new individuals.  Individuals that could take two or more years to develop before assuming roles of increased responsibility and clout.  This is the likely reason and not, as some cynics have suggested, merely PR propaganda developed for the benefit of our adversaries to suggest that UK intelligence is growing.  The argument here being that even if the funds are not available, and even if the organisation is cutting costs, creating the illusion that the funds are there is just as effective.

 

So far the common denominator is money.  Whether it is the level of funding, or the maximisation of value for each pound spent.  Mr Younger’s comments clearly pushes ideology as a motivator and driver for potential candidates, and one can hardly blame him.  Let’s face it, it would be hard for SIS to push the financial incentive when faced with free market competition.  So, it is a given that the organisation has to, regardless of whether it is true or not, sell the notion of ‘making a difference’ as the key driver.  So, enter the ‘buddhist spy’ i.e. someone who has forsaken all desires of financial or materialistic rewards in favour of….that little bit more.  Here, the idea that freedom is power is never more true, but by god it’s a tough one to find, especially in the younger recruits.  Money can never be the sole motivator in this profession, but the complexities of life, youth, character and practical issues, means it simply is important.  One cannot really attribute this simply to youth either.  Yes, the younger recruits may well be ambitious and dazzled at the prospect of financial reward, but then again so is the 42 year old married man with three children.  So its not that.  Indeed, the tap on the shoulder system which focussed on the Oxbridge folk probably worked largely because they were the elite and on the whole from upper middle class affluent backgrounds where they always has the family vault to nudge open in times of desperation.  Ironically, this student and the buddhist spy are similar in that they are both free from financial pressures thereby making them more effective. 

 

So, they key thread to pull from the above is that there is power to be had from the freedom of external influences.  Without wanting to drift down the spiritual or philosophical road too much, a successful spy in todays world could be the one who can happily remove any influence, both positive or negative.  In the case of the honey trap, it would be rendered useless if the person did not attribute so much influence to sex.  In the case of financial reward, bribery or extortion, if one truly has zero desire for money then it is powerless.  In the case of power itself, if one is sufficiently self confident to the point where the affirmation from power is not needed, then that too is rendered useless.  So the buddhist spy almost becomes machine like.  Perhaps this is another case for the advancement of the neurodiverse, or those people less emotionally driven to some extent, in favour of the ‘safety’ of the binary world.  In essence, the buddhist spy is simply a person who cannot be bought, and therefore cannot be compromised.  Could you be that person?

 

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